IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Air Force
Mountain West
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.1	#225
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.7	#149
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.0	#173

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.1	#295

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.5%	0.7%	0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.3	13.3	13.9

.500 or above	18.4%	23.6%	7.8%
.500 or above in Conference	12.2%	14.9%	6.6%
Conference Champion	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
Last Place in Conference	29.4%	24.9%	38.8%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
First Round	0.5%	0.6%	0.2%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Neutral) - 67.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 5	1 - 8
Quad 3	3 - 6	4 - 14
Quad 4	6 - 3	10 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 28, 2020	308	Cal St. Northridge	W	82-77	67%
Nov 29, 2020	286	Seattle	W	78-75	61%
Dec 02, 2020	305	Denver	W	81-74	75%
Dec 05, 2020	236	Lamar	W	77-73	62%
Dec 13, 2020	144	@ Drake	L	70-78	23%
Dec 17, 2020	104	@ Nevada	L	73-85	15%
Dec 19, 2020	104	@ Nevada	L	73-85	16%
Dec 23, 2020	291	Utah Valley	W	79-73	70%
Dec 31, 2020	75	Utah St.	L	69-78	22%
Jan 02, 2021	75	Utah St.	L	69-78	22%
Jan 06, 2021	86	@ Boise St.	L	69-83	13%
Jan 08, 2021	86	@ Boise St.	L	69-83	12%
Jan 16, 2021	169	Wyoming	L	71-72	48%
Jan 18, 2021	169	Wyoming	L	71-72	48%
Jan 22, 2021	36	San Diego St.	L	65-77	15%
Jan 24, 2021	36	San Diego St.	L	65-77	16%
Jan 27, 2021	282	@ San Jose St.	L	81-82	49%
Jan 29, 2021	282	@ San Jose St.	L	81-82	48%
Feb 04, 2021	102	@ UNLV	L	68-80	17%
Feb 06, 2021	102	@ UNLV	L	68-80	17%
Feb 11, 2021	150	Fresno St.	L	69-71	43%
Feb 13, 2021	150	Fresno St.	L	69-71	44%
Feb 22, 2021	180	New Mexico	L	79-80	50%
Feb 24, 2021	180	New Mexico	L	79-80	49%
Feb 27, 2021	112	@ Colorado St.	L	73-84	19%
Mar 01, 2021	112	@ Colorado St.	L	73-84	18%
Projected Record						9 - 17	6 - 14

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0				0.3	1st
2nd												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0					0.7	2nd
3rd												0.1	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0					1.3	3rd
4th									0.0	0.0	0.3	1.1	1.2	0.4	0.1								3.0	4th
5th									0.1	0.6	1.7	1.3	0.5	0.0									4.2	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.2	2.5	2.0	0.5	0.1	0.0									6.5	6th
7th						0.0	0.4	1.8	3.8	2.8	0.7	0.0											9.6	7th
8th					0.1	1.0	3.3	4.9	3.3	0.6	0.0												13.2	8th
9th			0.0	0.4	2.4	5.4	5.6	3.2	0.8	0.0													17.8	9th
10th		0.2	1.7	4.8	7.3	5.5	2.3	0.5	0.1														22.4	10th
11th	1.6	4.5	5.8	5.3	2.8	0.9	0.1	0.0															21.0	11th

Total	1.6	4.7	7.5	10.5	12.6	12.8	11.7	10.6	9.2	6.6	4.8	3.0	2.1	1.1	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0					Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-3	76.4%	0.1		0.0	0.0
16-4	27.8%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
15-5	26.4%	0.1		0.0	0.0		0.0
14-6	9.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.7%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.3%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2	0.0%														0.0		0.0	0.0						0.0
17-3	0.1%		38.9%	12.5%	26.4%	10.0									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0		30.2%
16-4	0.1%		18.5%	8.3%	10.2%	11.2												0.0	0.0					0.1		11.1%
15-5	0.3%		13.2%	7.0%	6.2%	12.3												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.2		6.7%
14-6	0.7%		9.5%	8.5%	1.1%	12.5											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.7		1.2%
13-7	1.1%		7.1%	6.4%	0.7%	12.9										0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		1.0		0.8%
12-8	2.1%		2.9%	2.9%		13.4												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			2.0
11-9	3.0%		2.6%	2.6%		14.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.0
10-10	4.8%		1.1%	1.1%		14.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.7
9-11	6.6%		0.4%	0.4%		14.7															0.0	0.0	0.0	6.5
8-12	9.2%		0.3%	0.3%		15.7																0.0	0.0	9.2
7-13	10.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	10.6
6-14	11.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.7
5-15	12.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.8
4-16	12.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.6
3-17	10.5%																							10.5
2-18	7.5%																							7.5
1-19	4.7%																							4.7
0-20	1.6%																							1.6

Total	100%		0.5%	0.4%	0.1%	13.3									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	99.5		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%